RESUMO
In field progeny testing program milk recording at monthly or bimonthly intervals and prediction of first lactation 305-day milk yield (FL305DMY) from these test day yields have been adapted as an alternative to daily milk recording. Wood's incomplete gamma function is the one of the commonly used nonlinear lactation curve model. In recent years Bayesian approach of fitting nonlinear biological models is gaining attention among researchers. In this study Wood's incomplete gamma function was fitted using Bayesian approach using monthly (MTDY) and bimonthly test day (BTDY) yields. The lactation curve parameters thus obtained were used for prediction of FL305DMY. Efficiency of prediction based on monthly and bimonthly test day milk yield were compared using error of prediction. It was found to be 5.78% and 7.59% as root mean square error (RMSE) based on MTDY and BTDY respectively.The Breeding values of 97 Karan Fries sires were estimated using BLUP-AM based on actual and predicted FL305DMY thus obtained. The RMSE was calculated as the difference between estimated breeding values based on actual and predicted yield. It was found that RMSE calculated based on MTDY showed only a marginal superiority of 0.79% over BTDY and showed high degree of correlation with actual yield. Therefore, recording at bimonthly intervals could be an economical alternative without compromising the efficiency.
Assuntos
Lactação , Leite , Feminino , Bovinos , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Dinâmica não LinearRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Kashmir has been at the centre of conflict between India and Pakistan after partition of erstwhile British India in 1947. While research suggests that conflict exposure may result in increased substance use, the prevalence of substance use disorders has remained an under-searched area in Kashmir. METHOD: We employed respondent-driven sampling (RDS) for recruiting substance users from two districts of Kashmir. Estimation of substance dependence was done using benchmarkmultiplier method. RESULTS: Prevalence of any substance dependence was estimated to be 1.95% while as for any opioids, it was 1.80%. Heroin was the most common opioid with last year use by 84.33% respondents. Current prevalence of injection drug use was 0.95% and heroin was the most common opioid among Injection Drug User (IDU), being used by 91.12% IDUs followed by Pentazocine (5.92%). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that RDS was a feasible and acceptable sampling method for recruiting 'difficult to reach 'participants like illicit substance users including IDUs. Our results further demonstrate that opioids are highly prevalent in Kashmir and heroin injection is not uncommon. All these findings call for attention from policy makers as opioids are one of the important contributors to mortality and morbidity related to substances.
RESUMO
Heat stress has adverse effects on the reproductive performances of dairy cattle and buffaloes. The dairy sector is a more vulnerable to global warming and climate change. The temperature humidity index (THI) is the widely used index to measure the magnitude of heat stress in animals. The objective of this paper was to assess the decline in performances of reproductive traits such as service period, conception rate and pregnancy rate of dairy cattle and buffaloes with respect to increase in THI. The review stated that service period in cattle is affected by season of calving for which cows calved in summer had the longest service period. The conception rate and pregnancy rate in dairy cattle were found decreased above THI 72 while a significant decline in reproductive performances of buffaloes was observed above threshold THI 75. The non-heat stress zone (HSZ) (October to March) is favorable for optimum reproductive performance, while fertility is depressed in HSZ (April to September) and critical HSZ (CHSZ) (May and June). Heat stress in animals has been associated with reduced fertility through its deleterious impact on oocyte maturation and early embryo development. The management strategies viz., nutrition modification, environment modification and timed artificial insemination protocol are to be strictly operated to ameliorate the adverse effects of heat stress in cattle and buffaloes during CHSZ to improve their fertility. The identification of genes associated with heat tolerance, its incorporation into breeding program and the inclusion of THI covariate effects in selection index should be targeted for genetic evaluation of dairy animals in the hot climate.
